As I read this morning that Massachusetts Rep. Stephen Lynch is seriously threatening to vote no on the final health care bill, his rationale reminded me of something.  Here’s Lynch:

Lynch said his biggest objections in the Senate bill are a proposed surcharge on so-called “Cadillac” health-care plans, anti-trust provisions favoring insurers and lack of cost restraints.

“I continue to be opposed to the bill,” Lynch said, noting he doesn’t see how it can realistically be changed in coming days to win his support.

Lynch said he was under intense pressure from Democratic leaders and union officials yesterday to vote in favor of the bill.

Labor leaders have called and even visited Lynch – even though unions have opposed the prospect of their members possibly one day paying a “Cadillac” surcharge on their health plans as part of extending insurance coverage to millions of other Americans.

Matt Yglesias said on Twitter yesterday that he doesn’t “understand how Lynch can survive a primary without union support.”  On the surface, interesting question.  But Lynch very well may be looking at what happened in the Massachusetts Senate special election, and what voting union members said about the tax on their health care plans.  From the AFL-CIO’s own polling on the issue:

The election also should be a wake-up call for those in Washington who support taxing working families’ health care. Voters who thought their health care would be taxed voted by 64 percent for Brown, while those who did not think their health care would be taxed voted by 54 percent to 40 percent for Coakley.

While unions are pressuring Lynch to support the bill despite the excise tax, it’s clear that at least union member voters in Massachusetts do not want to have their health care plans taxed; those that fear such a tax flocked to the Republican candidate.  

My guess is that Stephen Lynch is looking at these numbers and making a calculated decision that he’ll stick with the voters on this one.